What private emerging tech companies don’t tell you about their business

The negative sentiment in tech stocks, caused by rising interest rates, less attractive discounted cash flow models and more tepid forward guidance, is easily measured by public market valuations. And while there’s lots of talk about the impact on private companies, their cash runways and 409A valuations, measuring the performance of nonpublic companies isn’t as easy. Initial public offerings have dried up and public statements by private companies accentuate the good and hide the bad. Real data, unless you’re an insider, is hard to find.

In this Breaking Analysis, we unlock some of the secrets that nonpublic, emerging tech companies may or may not be sharing. We do this by introducing you to a capability from Enterprise Technology Research that we’ve not previously exposed in Breaking Analysis. It’s called the ETR Emerging Technology Survey and it’s packed with sentiment and performance data based on surveys of more than 1,000 chief information officers and information technology buyers covering more than 400 private companies. The survey will highlight metrics on the evaluation, adoption and churn rates for private companies and the mindshare they’re able to capture.

We’ve invited back our colleague Erik Bradley of ETR to help explain the survey and the data we’re going to cover in this post.

Emerging Technology Survey respondent composition

The above slide shows the the breakdown of survey respondents. Erik Bradley shared following data, which summarizes the survey breakdown:

  • Over 1,000 respondents
    • two-thirds director level or above
    • 28% C-Suite executives
  • Covering 450 emerging technology vendors
  • Private companies;
  • Measures awareness, evaluations, adoptions and churn
  • Bias toward North America (77%)

[Listen to Erik Bradley explain the background of the ETS study & its methodology].

This Breaking Analysis is structured as follows:

  • First, we’re going to look at the high and low sentiment for the larger private companies.
  • Next we’ll do the same for the smaller private companies, the ones that don’t have as much mindshare.
  • After that we’ll group those two together and look at three dimensions:
    • Which companies are being evaluated the most;
    • Which private firms are seeing the most usage and adoption of their offerings
    • Which companies are seeing the highest churn rates.
  • After this overview, we’ll take a high-level look at sentiment and mindshare within two sectors, security and data.
  • The data segment will be broken down into three subsectors:
    • Database/data warehousing;
    • Big data analytics;
    • ML/AI.

One other note: The ETS data very often will include open-source offerings in the mix of companies, even though they’re not companies. An example is you’ll see adoption data for tools like TensorFlow and Kubernetes. This is done is for context, because virtually everyone is using open-source tooling and thus it provides a comparative data point. As well, many companies are building businesses around open-source platforms and this serves as a momentum indicator for the space in which they play.

Sentiment for larger private firms

The graphic above looks at the highest (green dots) and lowest (red dots) sentiment among those private firms with the largest mindshare. The data

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Chiefs playoff outlook: Computer models don’t favor KC

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes hangs his head during the second half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

AP

The Kansas City Chiefs are below .500 through the first seven games of the NFL season for the first time since 2015, when they had a 2-5 record.

There is a sliver of good news in that comparison: the Chiefs ended up making the playoffs and were in the hunt for the AFC West title late in that season.

Can this year’s Chiefs team, which has a 3-4 record, repeat the feat? The computer models aren’t so sure.

The New York Times’ playoff picture gives the Chiefs a 34% chance of making the playoffs and a 12% shot of winning the division. Eight AFC teams have a higher percentage of qualifying for the postseason.

FiveThirtyEight.com is a bit more bullish on the Chiefs, giving them a 43% chance of being in the postseason and a 15% chance of being AFC West champions. There are eight conference teams ahead of the Chiefs in postseason chances.

PlayoffStatus.com gives the Chiefs just a 25% chance of making the playoffs and has 10 AFC teams ahead of them. They have an 11% chance of winning the West.

While the numbers aren’t favorable, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said he’s embracing the opportunity to turn things around.

“I’m excited for it,” Mahomes said on “The Rich Eisen Show”. “I think the guys in this locker room are excited for the challenge and hopefully when we look back on this .. adversity we have and we can show that that was the reason why we became the team that we wanted to become.”

There is plenty of time for the Chiefs to improve their playoff chances. They have 10 games remaining, but five of them are against teams leading their division: Packers, Cowboys, Bengals and Raiders (twice).

In fact, no team faces a tougher slate of games to finish the season than the Chiefs, as James Palmer of the NFL Network noted.

Tankathon has those same numbers, and it’s worth noting the Raiders, who lead the AFC West, have the 16th most difficult remaining schedule (opponents have a combined .500 record). The remaining schedule for the Chargers, who have a 4-2 record, is ranked 27th (.440 opponent records).

Two other teams of note: the Bills’ schedule is ranked 30th (.403) and the Titans’ is 32nd (.379).

This story was originally published October 28, 2021 10:53 AM.

From covering the World Series to the World Cup, Pete has done a little bit of everything since joining The Star in 1997.


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